Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by the organizers. We argue that this distinction does not stem from fundamental differences in the methods assigned to either class. Instead, this distinction is probably of a tribal nature, which limits the insights into the appropriateness and effectiveness of different forecasting methods. We provide alternative characteristics of forecasting methods which, in our view, allow to draw meaningful conclusions. Further, we discuss areas of forecasting which could benefit most from cross-pollination between the ML and the statistics communities.

我们介绍了多变量时间序列中异常检测问题的新型，实际相关的变化：内在的异常检测。它出现在从DevOps到IoT的各种实践场景中，我们想认识到在周围环境影响下运行的系统的故障。固有的异常是时间序列之间的功能依赖性结构的变化，该时间序列代表代表所述环境中系统内部状态的环境和时间序列。我们将此问题形式化，为其提供了不足的公共和新的专用数据集，并提供了处理内在异常检测的方法。这些解决了无法区分系统状态的预期变化和意外情况的现有异常检测方法的缩写，即，偏离环境影响的系统的变化。我们最有前途的方法是完全无监督的，并结合了对抗性学习和时间序列表示学习，从而解决了标签稀疏性和主观性等问题，同时允许导航并改善臭名昭著的有问题的异常检测数据集。

虽然古典时间系列预测被隔离考虑个人时间序列，但基于深度学习的最近进步表明，从大型相关时间序列中共同学习可以提高预测精度。然而，与古典预测方法相比，这些方法的准确性大大限制了它们的适用性，这是极大的。为了弥合这一差距，我们采用了一个时间序列预测问题的元学习视图。我们介绍了一种新的预测方法，称为Meta全球 - 本地自动回归（Meta-Glar），通过从经常性神经网络（RNN）产生的映射到一个 - 前方预测。至关重要的是，RNN的参数在多个时间序列中学习通过闭合形式适配机制来抛弃多个时间序列。在我们广泛的实证评估中，我们表明，我们的方法与先前工作中报告的样本超出预测精度有竞争力。

基于预测方法的深度学习已成为时间序列预测或预测的许多应用中的首选方法，通常通常优于其他方法。因此，在过去的几年中，这些方法现在在大规模的工业预测应用中无处不在，并且一直在预测竞赛（例如M4和M5）中排名最佳。这种实践上的成功进一步提高了学术兴趣，以理解和改善深厚的预测方法。在本文中，我们提供了该领域的介绍和概述：我们为深入预测的重要构建块提出了一定深度的深入预测；随后，我们使用这些构建块，调查了最近的深度预测文献的广度。

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this paper we propose DeepAR, a methodology for producing accurate probabilistic forecasts, based on training an auto-regressive recurrent network model on a large number of related time series. We demonstrate how by applying deep learning techniques to forecasting, one can overcome many of the challenges faced by widely-used classical approaches to the problem. We show through extensive empirical evaluation on several real-world forecasting data sets accuracy improvements of around 15% compared to state-of-the-art methods.

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

We propose a fully unsupervised method to detect bias in contextualized embeddings. The method leverages the assortative information latently encoded by social networks and combines orthogonality regularization, structured sparsity learning, and graph neural networks to find the embedding subspace capturing this information. As a concrete example, we focus on the phenomenon of ideological bias: we introduce the concept of an ideological subspace, show how it can be found by applying our method to online discussion forums, and present techniques to probe it. Our experiments suggest that the ideological subspace encodes abstract evaluative semantics and reflects changes in the political left-right spectrum during the presidency of Donald Trump.

Incorporating prior knowledge of physics laws and structural properties of dynamical systems into the design of deep learning architectures has proven to be a powerful technique for improving their computational efficiency and generalization capacity. Learning accurate models of robot dynamics is critical for safe and stable control. Autonomous mobile robots, including wheeled, aerial, and underwater vehicles, can be modeled as controlled Lagrangian or Hamiltonian rigid-body systems evolving on matrix Lie groups. In this paper, we introduce a new structure-preserving deep learning architecture, the Lie group Forced Variational Integrator Network (LieFVIN), capable of learning controlled Lagrangian or Hamiltonian dynamics on Lie groups, either from position-velocity or position-only data. By design, LieFVINs preserve both the Lie group structure on which the dynamics evolve and the symplectic structure underlying the Hamiltonian or Lagrangian systems of interest. The proposed architecture learns surrogate discrete-time flow maps instead of surrogate vector fields, which allows better and faster prediction without requiring the use of a numerical integrator, neural ODE, or adjoint techniques. Furthermore, the learnt discrete-time dynamics can be combined seamlessly with computationally scalable discrete-time (optimal) control strategies.

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be able to perform new tasks based on a few demonstrations or natural language instructions. While these capabilities have led to widespread adoption, most LLMs are developed by resource-rich organizations and are frequently kept from the public. As a step towards democratizing this powerful technology, we present BLOOM, a 176B-parameter open-access language model designed and built thanks to a collaboration of hundreds of researchers. BLOOM is a decoder-only Transformer language model that was trained on the ROOTS corpus, a dataset comprising hundreds of sources in 46 natural and 13 programming languages (59 in total). We find that BLOOM achieves competitive performance on a wide variety of benchmarks, with stronger results after undergoing multitask prompted finetuning. To facilitate future research and applications using LLMs, we publicly release our models and code under the Responsible AI License.

Denoising diffusions are state-of-the-art generative models which exhibit remarkable empirical performance and come with theoretical guarantees. The core idea of these models is to progressively transform the empirical data distribution into a simple Gaussian distribution by adding noise using a diffusion. We obtain new samples whose distribution is close to the data distribution by simulating a "denoising" diffusion approximating the time reversal of this "noising" diffusion. This denoising diffusion relies on approximations of the logarithmic derivatives of the noised data densities, known as scores, obtained using score matching. Such models can be easily extended to perform approximate posterior simulation in high-dimensional scenarios where one can only sample from the prior and simulate synthetic observations from the likelihood. These methods have been primarily developed for data on $\mathbb{R}^d$ while extensions to more general spaces have been developed on a case-by-case basis. We propose here a general framework which not only unifies and generalizes this approach to a wide class of spaces but also leads to an original extension of score matching. We illustrate the resulting class of denoising Markov models on various applications.